David Delaney on the Quietest Atlantic Hurricane Season on Record
President & CEO David Delaney explains why a record-quiet Atlantic peak season, driven by a strong El Niño, shouldn't change how insurers view tail risk heading into January 1 renewals.
David Delaney, President & CEO of Insight Analytics, wrote for Insurance Nerds on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season — the first in 76 years of reliable records to pass the climatological peak without producing a single hurricane. With accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) running roughly 84 percent below average, Delaney explains what is driving the lull and why it should not change how insurers view tail risk.
Highlights from the Analysis
A season without precedent
By September 11, only three weak named storms had formed and seasonal ACE stood at 4.4 against a date average of 60.5. Delaney notes that quiet openings in 2019 and 2022 still ended with Dorian and a Florida landfall that cost the industry more than $60 billion.
A strong El Niño is the driver
Elevated wind shear over the Caribbean and the Main Development Region is tearing storms apart before they can organize. Every Atlantic season that has coincided with a strong El Niño since 1950 has finished below normal.
Fewer storms, but concentrated Gulf Coast risk
In El Niño years, what activity does form tends to spin up close to the U.S. coast. Delaney points to Hurricane Betsy in 1965 as the reminder that one major Gulf Coast landfall is entirely consistent with a quiet season.
Renewals, rates, and the global picture
A quiet season should improve loss ratios and put downward pressure on property CAT rates heading into January 1 renewals — without changing anyone's view of tail risk. Globally, El Niño shifts risk rather than removing it, with Australian writers facing more drought and bushfire exposure.